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Hard–easy effect : ウィキペディア英語版 | Hard–easy effect
The hard–easy effect is a cognitive bias that occurs when, based on a specific level of difficulty of a given task, subjective judgements do not accurately reflect the true difficulty of that task. This manifests as a tendency to overestimate the probability of success in difficult tasks, and to underestimate the probability of success in easy tasks.〔Lichtenstein, S., & Fischhoff, B. (1977). Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 20(2), 159–183. 〕 == Example == An experimental group was given a questionnaire. It consisted of two alternative general-knowledge questions. Such as "Who was born first, Aristotle or Buddha?" or "Was the zipper invented before or after 1920?". The subjects filled in the answers they believed to be correct and rated how sure they were of them. The result shows that subjects tend to be ''underconfident'' when it comes to questions designated by the experimenters to be easy, and ''overconfident'' when it comes to questions designated by the experimenters to be hard.
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